Correction Notice for Results

I was rechecking my error calculations after I received a comment about the error calculations from a reviewer of my paper.   An example calculation was incorrect.  This was a minor error, but a further examination led to the discovery of a error in the 2-Party error of my model in 2012.  The error was approximately half of what it was supposed to be.  This mistake made my model falsely appear more accurate than the Five Thirty Model do to this underestimation.   All of the error calculations are currently being reexamined for possible errors.  I have already recalculated all the errors but I want to check them a couple of more times to be safe.  A corrected table will be posted once it is checked again.

Update: 12/5

No other major errors were found in the re-checking process.  All calculations have been checked three times post the discovery of the error of the 2012 2-Party error for my model.

Update: 1/20  fixed typo in tested model 2008 for both all candidates and 2-party and adjusted average

Below is the updated table to replace the former tables used in both the ESR Virtual Poster and the USPROC Paper:

 

Tested Model RMSE Tested Model RMSE Swing States RCP RMSE Swing State 538 RMSE 538 RMSE Swing State
2008 All Candidates 3.5474 3.14788 4.23389 3.19332 1.66958
2008 -2 Party 2.89669 2.57051 3.63513 3.0305 1.47846
2012 All Candidates 3.25139 1.94492 2.33511 2.38019 1.2979
2012 2-Party 2.37053 1.17163 1.61076 1.98642 0.9342
2016 All Candidates 6.82013 3.95985 3.32952 5.37952 3.56511
2016 2-Party 3.95985 3.14325 2.04295 3.81296 2.31948
All Candidate  Average 4.53964 3.01755 3.299507 3.65101 2.17753
2-Party Average 3.07569 2.29513 2.42961 2.94329 1.57738
2-Party Average Compared to 538 0.95695 0.68727 0.64923
2-Party Compared to RCP 1.05859

 

Column1 Tested Model RMSE Tested Model RMSE SS RCP RMSE SS FiveThirtyEight Polls PlusRMSE 538 RMSE SS
2008 3.5474 3.14788 4.23389 3.19332 1.66958
2008 -2 Party 2.89669 2.57051 3.63513 3.0305 1.47846
2012 3.25139 1.94492 2.33511 2.38019 1.2979
2012 2-Party 2.37053 1.17163 1.61076 1.98642 0.9342
2016 6.82013 6.42335 8.23311 5.37952 4.14228
2016 2-Party 3.95985 3.03986 1.89412 3.81296 2.41263
2016 SS without UT and AZ 3.99534 3.32952 3.56511
2016 SS without UT and AZ 2-Party 3.14325 2.04295 2.31948
Overall Average 4.53964 3.83872 4.93404 3.65101 2.36992
2-Party Average 3.07569 2.26067 2.38 2.94329 1.60843
2 – Party Average Compared to 538 0.95695 0.71148 0.67581
2- Party Compared to RCP 1.05279

 

 

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