An analysis of Voting Behavior in Swing States for the 2016 Election:
The goal of this project is to analyze voting behavior among various demographic and geographic groups in swing states. The Edision Research exit poll data will be analyzed for 11 swing states, to determine if there is any significant difference between voting behavior in individual swing states and the rest of the country. An analysis of county by county voting results from the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election will be conducted on Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida. The primary statistical test used will be chi-square test of homogeneity.
Predicting Delegate Assignment in the 2016 GOP Nomination:
A simple bayesian model for delegate assignment in the 2016 GOP Nomination Process. Election results from states who already had a caucus or primary were used as the prior. Predictions and posts located here: 2016usaelectionprediction.blogspot.com .
Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election:
A Bayesian model using the Gaussian conjugate prior. Poll data from other states served as the prior. Poll data from the state studied was used for the data. Predictions located here: http://2016usaelectionpredictions.blogspot.com/2016/11/final-call-summary.html and methodology here: http://2016usaelectionpredictions.blogspot.com/2016/09/looking-forward-to-november.html .
Right now I am exploring publication of the general election model.
Poster Presented at the Nebraska Conference for Undergraduate Women in Mathematics (2/5/17) and to be presented at the Texas Tech University Undergraduate Research Conference on 3/28.
Note: The poster here is slightly edited from the poster presented at Nebraska
You can contact me below about my research.