Updated version of the 2016 model with a different normalization method, clearer definitions of a swing state, and refined regions.
An analysis of Voting Behavior in Swing States for the 2016 Election:
The goal of this project is to analyze voting behavior among various demographic and geographic groups in swing states. The Edison Research exit poll data will be analyzed for 11 swing states, to determine if there is any significant difference between voting behavior in individual swing states and the rest of the country. Tabled after the results were not clear at which variables were key in the election. A multivariate analysis is needed to address the issues with the univariate exit poll data.
Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election:
I created a Bayesian model using the Gaussian conjugate prior. Poll data from other states served as the prior. Poll data from the state studied was used for the data. Predictions located here: http://2016usaelectionpredictions.blogspot.com/2016/11/final-call-summary.html and methodology here: http://2016usaelectionpredictions.blogspot.com/2016/09/looking-forward-to-november.html .
Right now I am exploring publication of the general election model.
A paper on the general election model was submitted to the Undergraduate Statistics Research Project competition sponsored by the American Statistics Assocation and the Consortium for the Advancement for Undergraduate Statistical Education. The paper is located here.
Predicting Delegate Assignment in the 2016 GOP Nomination:
A simple bayesian model for delegate assignment in the 2016 GOP Nomination Process. Election results from states who already had a caucus or primary were used as the prior. Predictions and posts located here: 2016usaelectionprediction.blogspot.com .
Poster Presented at the Nebraska Conference for Undergraduate Women in Mathematics (2/5/17) and to be presented at the Texas Tech University Undergraduate Research Conference on 3/28.
Video presentation presented at Electronic Undergraduate Statistics Conference 2017.
Note: The video presentation contains a table that has the wrong values. A correct table and statement on the error can be found here.
You can contact me below about my research.