Model Update 10-30

Today I am introducing a new map.

My attempts to embed the map have failed so I’m just going to link to it here.

Mean: Average predicted support for Biden in that state

Standard Deviation: A measure of the uncertainty of the model.

95% Credible Interval: There is a 95% probability according to my model that the true support for Biden will be in this interval.

Probability Biden wins: The estimated probability Biden wins from my model

Electors: Number of Electors in the Electoral College in this state

Now I’m going to bring back the old map because I like how it adds up the electors. The median number of electors for Biden is 357.

Edit: Map had some mistakes

Analysis:

The race continues to look the same. Texas and Arizona seem to be trending a little more towards Biden than a week ago. Texas surpassed it’s 2016 turnout which probably is another sign Texas is competitive, although I think Trump is the slight favorite. I don’t see a single state that voted for Clinton that Trump has a decent chance of winning.

I did an experiment on what happens if the model as wrong as it is in the past. If the model underestimates Biden, Biden clearly wins in a landslide. But even if the model underestimates Trump at 2016 levels, the model still gives an average of 303 electors for Biden.

I think that maybe there is a 10-20% today that Trump wins. Now on election day that number would be more like 10%. This probability isn’t coming from my model. My model says there is a 99% probability Biden wins but that will only hold if my assumptions hold. So I think there is a 10% chance my assumptions fail and a 10% chance that a major event happens before election day. I’m concerned about some court cases that could invalidate lots of mail in ballots or a major revelation about Joe Biden. I also wonder if the high early turnout is going to increase election day turnout because people may realize that the race is close. While Democrats seemed to do better in early voting, the knowledge of the high early turnout could make more Republicans want to turn out too.