I wanted to mention a few polls and discuss the recent immigration controversy over child separations, and the race in Pennsylvania.
I use http://fivethirtyeight.com and http://realclearpolitics.com to get my polling information.
Two Ohio polls got released on 6/13 that show the Brown ( the Democratic incumbent) is ahead outside of the margin of error with a 16 and 17 point lead. This means that the races are currently very safe for Brown. This race is unlikely to flip but I’ll keep my eye out for new polls.
A new poll in West Virginia shows that Manchin (the Democratic incumbent) with a 6 point lead which is outside of the margin of error. This combined with other two polls out right now suggests Manchin is probably leading.
Florida hasn’t had a primary yet, but two polls in May showed the presumed Republican nominee, Governor Rick Scott, with a slight lead. In one case the poll was outside the margin of error, but given the historical errors of early Senate polls, this is far from definitive. This is interesting, but it is to early to tell what this will mean in November. Incumbents have an advantage, and Trump is unpopular and that might affect turnout.
The controversy over the child separations of immigrants caught entering illegally might have an effect on the some of the Senate races. Trump is not on the ballot, but his (un)popularity might affect turnout which I think is going be very important in this election. Trump did end the policy, but it could still affect the election.
In particular, Beto O’Rouke, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, may have benefited from controversy. O’Rouke was on a few news shows and called for the policy to end. O’Rouke also used social media to discuss his views, which also get him more attention. As a Texas native, I did see a lot more activity than usual supporting O’Rouke among my friends on my social media feed. This is a very biased sample that doesn’t reflect the entire Texas voting population, but it does signal to me that something may be changing. Hopefully, another poll will come out in Texas soon.
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