Tag: senate races

This is my last planned post for the 2018 midterms.  I would like to blog closer to the election but I am starting a Ph.D. program and may not have the time.  Hopefully, I will be able to make a prediction in November.  I am going to cover Florida and Missouri.  I will try to profile Arizona after the primary since there is a small chance that the presumed nominee McSally will not win on 8/28.

Florida

2016 Presidential Election result:  Trump: 49.02%  Clinton 47.82%, Margin: Trump +2.80%

2012 Senate Election result: Nelson (D) 55.2%,  Mack (R) 42.2%,  margin +13 D

Democratic Candidate: Bill Nelson (incumbent)

Nelson is currently the incumbent Senator.  He is moderate and was elected in 2000. He is branding himself as independent to appeal to Florida’s moderate independent voters.

Republican Candidate: Rick Scott

Scott is the current governor of Florida and was elected to that position in 2010.  He has an interesting plan to improve the Governments efficiency and fairness by writing bills that would introduce term limits, require congressmen to work 40 hours a week,  add a line item veto for the president, a requirement to have a super majority for a tax increase, and not paying congressman while there is no budget.  Even if he does write those bills,  I doubt that any of those things will actually become law.

My Thoughts on the Race: The Real Clear Politics average is currently Scott +1.2,  and I think this race is very close.  The latest poll showed Scott with a 3 point lead but it is from a Republican-leaning polling agency using a likely voter model that might not be accurate. The polls are disagreeing with each other but I think that is a combination of sampling error, the mix of likely voter polls and registered voter polls and variations in the agency.  There are still some undecided voters and as the undecided voters decrease and we get closer to election day hopefully this will be more clear.   This is definitely a race to watch on election night.  And to make this race even more interesting there is currently a controversy over whether or not Russian has hacked  Florida’s voter registration system.  Both campaigns are blaming each other on the algae bloom crisis with attack ads.  The winner of this race is probably going to be determined by turnout.

2016 Presidential Election result:  Trump: 56.77%  Clinton 38.14%, Margin: Trump +22.63%

2012 Senate Election result: McCaskill (D) 54.8%,  Akin (R) 39.1%, Dine (Libertarian) 6.1%  margin +15.7% D

Democratic Candidate: Claire McCaskill (incumbent)

McCaskill was elected in 2006.  Her Trump Score is 45.3% but the predicted score is 83.2%.   This difference means that there is plenty of material for attack ads on her past votes.  She voted no for the Tax plan and for immigration reform the president didn’t support.  She opposed the Republican budgets.  While as an incumbent she has an advantage,  but she might struggle to get Trump voters to vote for her.

Republican Candidate: Josh Hawley

Hawley is the current Attorney general and states on his website that he is “one of the nation’s leading constitutional lawyers”, and supports religious freedom and fighting against the opioid epidemic and human trafficking.

My Thoughts on the Race: The polling data has been pretty spread out, and the polling agencies are legitimate but not as good as the big name polling agencies.  Hawley has a chance of winning,  but at this time McCaskill might have a slight lead.  Hopefully, more polls will be conducted so we can see a better picture.

We had a couple of new polls come out this week in the competitive states.  I want to start off and explain how the margin of error works and what typical errors are.  The margin of error is calculated based on a variety of assumptions (independence of observations, identically distributed probabilities, and no sampling error) that I don’t believe always hold.  So the margin of error doesn’t explain all of the error inside of a poll.  FiveThirtyEight analyzed polling error and found an (weighted) average error of 5.4 for Senate elections for polls 21 days before the election.  An average error works like a standard deviation in interpreting error.  This has an interpretation of a poll being about plus or minus 10.8% the expected mean about 95%.    But since the election is far away and it is a midterm year, we should expect a little higher error in the polls right now, so anything within 5-10 points is still somewhat realistic for the other candidate.  But with multiple polls combined the errors get exponentially smaller.

In West Virginia,  a new poll shows Manchin with a 10 point lead.  This combined with multiple other polls suggests this race is not competitive and the one poll with a Morrisey lead was an outlier.  I am no longer considering the West Virginia as a competitive race.

In Arizona, a set of polls on 7/9, focused on the Republican Primary candidates.  McSally was in the lead,  and she had the best poll numbers against the presumed Democratic nominee.  This seat is currently held by Senator Flake who is retiring.

A Missouri poll shows a Republican primary candidate,  Josh Hawley, ahead of Senator McCaskill.  I am not sure if Hawley will win the primary, but this poll shows that the race is competitive.

In Montana, the race is still looking close.  A new poll had Tester with a 3 point lead.  This is 5 points closer than the last poll,  but all or most of this difference could easily be explained by sampling error.  Rosendale (R) will have to appeal more to moderate and independent voters to win.

In Tennessee, a poll shows the presumed Democratic Senate nominee and former Governor Bredesen with a 6 point lead over the presumed Republican nominee Blackburn, a US Representative.

In Florida,  a new poll showed Senator Nelson with a lead of 4 points against Rick Scott (current Governor of Florida), technically outside the margin of error. The polls have been going back and forth.  The polls are over different periods of times, use different polling methods, and are by different pollsters,  which means it’s not unusual that they are different.  My guess is that right now the result would be between +4 for Nelson and +4 for Scott.  The primary is coming up soon,  and after that more people might decide even though Nelson (D)  and Scott (R) are the only viable candidates.

These changes along with the other changes from last week mean the competitive races are now:  Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Michigan (temporarily until primary), Wisconsin (temporarily until primary).  I know that one poll has a large error, but when you see multiple large leads without external evidence for a close race the odds of the polling being wrong to get smaller.  In my model competitiveness matters because it determines the prior which can affect the final call.  I want my groups to be as homogenous as possible.

Polling Updates

Two new Texas polls show Cruz is still leading.  One showed Cruz +5 and the other was Cruz +10.  Both were outside the margin of error. These polls were from 6/8 to 6/17 for the 5 point lead and 6/19 to 6/22 for the 10 point lead.  Given the child separation controversy occurred around this time,  that might have affected these numbers.  O’Rouke still needs to improve his numbers.

A new Nevada poll shows the Rosen,  the Democratic challenger,  with a 4 point lead that is technically outside of the 3.9% margin of error.  This is promising but it could just be a temporary bump from the backlash over child separations.

A new Pennsylvania poll shows that Casey has a safe lead.  Based on this and the other polls Pennsylvania has been moved to the safe blue column until further notice.

Similarly to Pennsylvania, another Ohio poll shows the incumbent Brown with a solid double-digit lead.  Therefore I am no longer considering Ohio a competitive race.

Two new contradictory Florida polls continue to a close race between the incumbent Nelson and the presumed Republican challenger Scott.  Scott has no competitors with a reasonable chance so he will probably be nominated.

North Dakota

2016 Presidential Election result:  Trump: 63%,  Clinton 27.2%, Margin: Trump +35.8%

2012 Senate Election result: Heitkamp (D) 50.2%,  Berg (R) 49.3%,  margin +0.9 D

Democratic Candidate: Heidi Heitkamp

Heitkamp was elected to the Senate in 2012 and was the Attorney General and Tax Commissioner of North Dakota before she was elected to the Senate.   She looks like a pretty moderate Democrat that has a pretty high Trump score for a Democrat in a state Trump won by a landside.

Republican Candidate: Kevin Cramer

Cramer has been a US representative since 2012,  and held other various political positions before then.   Cramer appears to be a populist Republican with Trump-like positions on his website.

My Thoughts on the Race:

The polls show a race that is close with one poll showing Heitkamp with a 3 point lead that was taken in February, and a more recent June poll shows Cramer with a 4 point lead which I am more inclined to view as accurate since pre-primary polls usually have undecided voters that will likely change their mind to their typical party once the primary is over.  Cramer just announced before the poll, so voters probably didn’t have enough information to decide.  Hopefully, there will be more polling before election day,  but this seat looks like it might flip to the Republican party.  Heitkamp barely won in 2012,  and Trump did well in North Dakota.

And as always,  for full disclosure, I am a moderate Republican,  and while I try to keep my politics out of my analysis,  they may affect how I view things.

I prewrote this post was written on 6/25, but I am going to briefly comment on the news of Justice Kennedy’s retirement. I’m on a mission trip so I can’t do a full post on the news yet.  Now Trump could get a supreme court nominee through before the seats change next January after the 2018 election, but there could be significant resistance from Democrats to against confirming the new justice until the midterm elections, and maybe even  attempting to block a very conservative justice even after the election.  Now the Republican Party has to hold their ground to protect the Supreme Court  and ideally gain a seat or two that would be loyal to President Trump, and vote for his nominee since I could see Senators McCain, Collins, Murkowski, or Graham possibly voting no if the candidate is too conservative.   And if Democrats win the senate in November, I would not be surprised if they refuse to nominate a conservative judge.  I wasn’t expecting the Supreme Court to be a major issue in the campaign, but it just became one.

Pennsylvania:

2016 Presidential Election result:  Trump: 48.18%,  Clinton 47.46%, Margin: Trump +0.72%

2012 Senate Election result: Casey (D) 53.7%,  Smith (R) 44.6%

Democratic Candidate: Bob Casey (Incumbent)

Casey is the incumbent senator.  He has served two terms and held various political positions prior to his election as Senator.  His campaign websites mention his support for improving infrastructure and the renegotiation of trade deals,  similar to Trump’s positions.  In my opinion, he is presenting his view on the issues as a moderate Democrat.

Republican Candidate: Lou Barletta

Barletta is currently a US congressman and was formerly a businessman and mayor of Hazleton.  Barletta’s issues page wasn’t very detailed, but it seemed like typical conservative Republican positions.  Barletta’s campaign site contains an article attacking Casey’s political history and other attacks on Casey’s voting record.  This isn’t surprising and is something that numerous politicians on both sides of the aisle have down,  but I haven’t seen that many directly negative campaigns thus far.

My Thoughts on the Race:

Two polls show Casey has a big lead, and Pennsylvania is a purple/blue state.  I don’t know if I should really even consider this seat competitive.  I don’t want to ignore Pennsylvania like it was ignored in 2016,  but I don’t want to be too cautious.  I think I need to revisit my categorizations and add a “probably safe for the incumbent but anything can happen in the Trump era” subgroup.

Nevada:

2016 Presidential Election result:  Trump: 46.1%,  Clinton 48.2%, Margin: Clinton +2.1%

2012 Senate Election result: Heller (R) 45.9%,  Berkley (D) 44.7%

Democratic Candidate: Jacky Rosen

Rosen is currently a US representative and was previously a computer programmer.  She appears to be an establishment Democrat.

Republican Candidate: Dean Heller (Incumbent)

Heller is the incumbent senator.  He has served one full term.  His website mentions his support for rural voters during his time in the Senate, which is strategetic.  He is definitely appealing to Trump’s supporters and more moderate Republicans.

My Thoughts on the Race: With only 1 poll , conducted before the primary,  showing a statistical tie,  the Nevada race looks to be close.  Unlike most of the other races I have examined thus far,  the Nevada race involves a vulnerable Republican.  Given Nevada’s large Hispanic population, and slight Democratic lean,  I think this seat is the most likely to flip parties.  The Texas seat is also vulnerable,  but Nevada is more liberal-leaning than Texas.   Trump did do a fundraiser for Heller but that could backfire by encouraging Rosen’s supporters to donate more.  Nevada is definitely a race worth watching.

I wanted to mention a few polls and discuss the recent immigration controversy over child separations, and the race in Pennsylvania.

I use http://fivethirtyeight.com and http://realclearpolitics.com to get my polling information.

Two Ohio polls got released on 6/13 that show the Brown ( the Democratic incumbent) is ahead outside of the margin of error with a 16 and 17 point lead.  This means that the races are currently very safe for Brown.  This race is unlikely to flip but I’ll keep my eye out for new polls.

A new poll in West Virginia  shows that Manchin (the Democratic incumbent) with a 6 point lead which is outside of the margin of error.  This combined with other two polls  out right now suggests Manchin is probably leading.

Florida hasn’t had a primary yet,  but two polls in May showed the presumed Republican nominee, Governor Rick Scott, with a slight lead.  In one case the poll was outside the margin of error,  but given the historical errors of early Senate polls,  this is far from definitive.  This is interesting,  but it is to early to tell what this will mean in November.  Incumbents have an advantage,  and Trump is unpopular and that might affect turnout.

The controversy over the child separations of immigrants caught entering illegally might have an effect on the some of the Senate races.  Trump is not on the ballot,  but his (un)popularity might affect turnout which I think is going be very important in this election.    Trump did end the policy,  but it could still affect the election.

In particular, Beto O’Rouke,  the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas,  may have benefited from controversy.  O’Rouke was on a few news shows and called for the policy to end.  O’Rouke also used social media to discuss his views, which also get him more attention.  As a Texas native,  I did see a lot more activity than usual supporting O’Rouke among my friends on my social media feed.   This is a very biased sample that doesn’t reflect the entire Texas voting population,  but it does signal to me that something may be changing.  Hopefully, another poll will come out in Texas soon.

This post was written on June 10th and may not reflect last minute changes.

2016 Presidential Election result:  Trump: 51.69%,  Clinton 43.56%, Margin: Trump +8.13%

2012 Senate Election result: Brown (D) 50.7%,  Mandel (R) 44.7%

Democratic Candidate: Sherrod Brown

Brown is the incumbent.  He was first elected to the Senate in 2006, and before that he was a U.S. representative and had various state level positions.  He has been highly productive in producing new bills, including bipartisan ones.  My impression of Brown is that he is a moderate Democrat.  His opinion on social issues like abortion and LGBT+ rights may be too liberal for some voters in Ohio.

Republican Candidate: Jim Renacci

Renacci is currently a member of the US House of Representatives, but it wasn’t in his biography which I thought was odd.  Before he was a politician he was a businessman, which seems to be a pattern among Republican candidates in the Trump era.  His views appear to be reminiscent of the 2016 Republican platform.

My Thoughts on the Race:

Brown is the incumbent and the one poll we have had Brown winning by 14 points.   This is one of the races I am watching,  but I don’t think it will flip.  Trump didn’t win by that much in Ohio.  I would consider Ohio a purple state.  Brown has done well in his past elections.  I don’t think a candidate that is similar to Trump is enough to beat an incumbent when Trump isn’t that popular.

I think it is important to watch all the states where there is a mismatch in the Senator’s party and the 2016 Presidential Election result.   I don’t know how much movement there will be.  This new project has been a big learning experience for me.  Control of the Senate is decided by so many unique races.  It’s interesting to learn about the current and future Senators and get a look at a different side of voting behavior.  I have enjoyed watching primary night coverage and learning more about American political geography.

Over the past few days,  a controversy has erupted over West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s supposed opinion on the border wall.  In January, Manchin  (a Democrat) said he supports a border wall in an interview on Fox and Friends.   But a recent super PAC ad that says he doesn’t support the border wall which is important in a state where Trump won by a large margin and where (the reduction of illegal) immigration is viewed as an important issue.  Manchin is trying to remove the ad from TV and has a press release here.

Manchin definitely voted yes for cloture on an amendment to the Broader Options for Americans Act that supported increased border security (including physical structures like walls).  The amendment didn’t move any further in the bill making process.  But to make things complicated Manchin was quoted in a Politico article from last July as saying:  (he’s) “not been supportive of funding for a wall.” and “It’s something I have no interest in. I just think we have so many other pressing problems and I think there are other ways immigration needs to be treated.”.  I am curious why there was a change in Manchin’s position  It’s fine that he changed his mind,  but I think he will need to explain the older comments against the wall and increased border security so that he doesn’t look like he changed his mind to attract voters.

I had some trouble sorting out both sides of the story because there was some spin on both sides.  The Republican PAC was trying to sway Trump voters to not vote for Manchin,  but they didn’t mention the GOP candidate.   And Manchin was trying to point out his support for Trump’s immigration agenda,  but I personally feel like he didn’t explain his previous comments in the Politico article,  and I generally trust Politico as a news source.  Hopefully, some new polls will come out so we can see what the voters think about this.  I can see some more attack ads coming out about this topic,  but it always difficult to guess how voters will react.

Political Bias Disclosure: Since I am a strong believer in transparency in the discussion of politics,  I would like to disclose that I am a moderate Republican.   I try to remain unbiased and look at the issues like a voter in that election.

In today’s blog post I will discuss two of the competitive races.  In West Virginia and Indiana, we have two incumbent Democrats from red states.   In these profiles, I want to examine the candidates and the race,  much like a voter would.    I want to look at past elections, the experience of the candidates,  and the stance of the candidates on the issues (as judged by their campaign websites).

Disclaimer:  I am a moderate Republican,  and while I try to remain as objective as possible I acknowledge that my unintentional bias might affect my view of the races.

West Virginia:

2016 Presidential Election result:  Trump: 68.6%,  Clinton 26.5%, Margin: Trump +42.1%

2012 Senate Election result: Manchin (D) 60.6%,  Raese (R) 36.5%

Democratic Candidate:  Joe Manchin

Manchin was governor of West Virginia before he was elected in 2010 during a special election.  He seems to be a more moderate Democrat than most.  What I think makes him appealing is his focus on improving the quality of life of West Virginias through tax, education, and healthcare reform.

Republican Candidate:  Patrick Morrisey

Morrisey has served as the Attorney General of West Virginia since 2012.  He seems to be pretty conservative and has is presenting himself with views that appear similar to Trump (without invoking his name) which is his main advantage.

My Thoughts on the Race:  The polling is limited right now.  I am inclined to believe the Gravis poll which shows Manchin with a 13 point lead, over the WPAi poll which shows Morrisey with a 2 point lead (inside the margin of error).  I know that the incumbency advantage is strong and that Manchin has done well in his past two elections.  But given the polarized environment,  I think Morrisey has a chance.  Hopefully, more polls will tell a better picture.

Indiana:

2016 Presidential Election result:  Trump: 56.9%,  Clinton 37.8%, Margin: Trump +19.1

2012 Senate Election result: Donnelly (D) 50%,  Mourdock (R) 44.3%

Democratic Candidate:  Joe Donnelly

Donnelly has a US representative before he was elected to the senate in 2012.  Donnelly seems moderate.  His website focuses multiple times on the importance of looking at the best policy and not the one associated with a party.

Republican Candidate: Mike Braun

His website  is reminscent of the Trump campaign with “Drain the Swamp” on the front page at the time of this posting.  He is very conservative and similar to Trump (in my opinion).   He could turn off centrists,  (I am a moderate republican and I don’t know if I would vote for him).

My Thoughts on the Race:  If I had to pick which race between Indiana and West Virginia was more likely to flip I would choose Indiana.  There is only one poll  right now. I don’t consider Braun’s  1 point lead to be that meaningful but it shows that the race is very close.  It’s an early poll of 400 voters with 7% undecided, which limits its predictability of the election result.  Indiana is definitely worth watching.