I prewrote this post was written on 6/25, but I am going to briefly comment on the news of Justice Kennedy’s retirement. I’m on a mission trip so I can’t do a full post on the news yet. Now Trump could get a supreme court nominee through before the seats change next January after the 2018 election, but there could be significant resistance from Democrats to against confirming the new justice until the midterm elections, and maybe even attempting to block a very conservative justice even after the election. Now the Republican Party has to hold their ground to protect the Supreme Court and ideally gain a seat or two that would be loyal to President Trump, and vote for his nominee since I could see Senators McCain, Collins, Murkowski, or Graham possibly voting no if the candidate is too conservative. And if Democrats win the senate in November, I would not be surprised if they refuse to nominate a conservative judge. I wasn’t expecting the Supreme Court to be a major issue in the campaign, but it just became one.
Pennsylvania:
2016 Presidential Election result: Trump: 48.18%, Clinton 47.46%, Margin: Trump +0.72%
2012 Senate Election result: Casey (D) 53.7%, Smith (R) 44.6%
Democratic Candidate: Bob Casey (Incumbent)
Casey is the incumbent senator. He has served two terms and held various political positions prior to his election as Senator. His campaign websites mention his support for improving infrastructure and the renegotiation of trade deals, similar to Trump’s positions. In my opinion, he is presenting his view on the issues as a moderate Democrat.
Republican Candidate: Lou Barletta
Barletta is currently a US congressman and was formerly a businessman and mayor of Hazleton. Barletta’s issues page wasn’t very detailed, but it seemed like typical conservative Republican positions. Barletta’s campaign site contains an article attacking Casey’s political history and other attacks on Casey’s voting record. This isn’t surprising and is something that numerous politicians on both sides of the aisle have down, but I haven’t seen that many directly negative campaigns thus far.
My Thoughts on the Race:
Two polls show Casey has a big lead, and Pennsylvania is a purple/blue state. I don’t know if I should really even consider this seat competitive. I don’t want to ignore Pennsylvania like it was ignored in 2016, but I don’t want to be too cautious. I think I need to revisit my categorizations and add a “probably safe for the incumbent but anything can happen in the Trump era” subgroup.
Nevada:
2016 Presidential Election result: Trump: 46.1%, Clinton 48.2%, Margin: Clinton +2.1%
2012 Senate Election result: Heller (R) 45.9%, Berkley (D) 44.7%
Democratic Candidate: Jacky Rosen
Rosen is currently a US representative and was previously a computer programmer. She appears to be an establishment Democrat.
Republican Candidate: Dean Heller (Incumbent)
Heller is the incumbent senator. He has served one full term. His website mentions his support for rural voters during his time in the Senate, which is strategetic. He is definitely appealing to Trump’s supporters and more moderate Republicans.
My Thoughts on the Race: With only 1 poll , conducted before the primary, showing a statistical tie, the Nevada race looks to be close. Unlike most of the other races I have examined thus far, the Nevada race involves a vulnerable Republican. Given Nevada’s large Hispanic population, and slight Democratic lean, I think this seat is the most likely to flip parties. The Texas seat is also vulnerable, but Nevada is more liberal-leaning than Texas. Trump did do a fundraiser for Heller but that could backfire by encouraging Rosen’s supporters to donate more. Nevada is definitely a race worth watching.
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